Predictions and preregistrations are written before a run, hashed with sha256 and listed in predictions/HASHES.txt; the conformity run on every push compares each file with its listed hash, and the run of 2026-10-09T07:54:32Z shows all 8 files matching.
| field | value |
|---|---|
| status | 8 prediction files, 0 problems (check predictions.hashes, requirement CC-6.3) |
| dates | first prediction written 2026-09-21; latest files hashed 2026-10-07 |
| ledgers | predictions/HASHES.txt; bench/HASHES.txt for the fawn-opener benchmark |
| published page | /predictions/HASHES.txt, /conformity/ |
The files
| file | what it holds | sha256 starts | hashed |
|---|---|---|---|
| the-cheating-moved-2026-09-21.txt | the prediction block as first written, from local vault commit f3f39ae | 955e60c9 | 2026-09-29 |
| the-cheating-moved-2026-09-29.txt | the block as published, with three amendments | 66ed5f04 | 2026-09-29 |
| continuous-conformity-self-assessment-2026-10-03.txt | predicted results for run 1 | 8ed4f766 | 2026-10-03, before scoring |
| sandbox-eval-04-prereg-v1.txt | experiment 04 prereg | ed5171af | 2026-10-07, before any scenario reached any model |
| sandbox-eval-04-prereg-v2.txt | amendment: output cap, ABSTAIN and TRUNCATED, qwen3-coder-30b | b07fb926 | 2026-10-07 |
| sandbox-eval-04-prereg-v3.txt | short-stance arm | 309a16c9 | 2026-10-07 |
| sandbox-eval-04-prereg-v4.txt | GPT line through the Codex CLI | 47108e39 | 2026-10-07 |
| sandbox-eval-04-prereg-v5.txt | three models via Bedrock | ddf2cfd1 | 2026-10-07 |
Run 1 of the conformity assessment is a self-assessment, not a certification; its prediction is the third row.
What a hash proves
A published hash proves the text has not changed since the hash was published. The 2026-09-21 chess block is taken verbatim from local vault commit f3f39ae (2026-09-21 18:38 +0200), and that history is not public; the diff between the two files shows every amendment. The experiment 04 files were kept in a local repository until publication and are byte-identical to the files hashed then. The chess protocol has not been run; see /the-cheating-moved/.
How the gate checks them
check_predictions() in run.py reads every line of the form <name>.txt sha256 <64 hex> from predictions/HASHES.txt. A listed file that is missing or has a different sha256 fails the check, and so does any .txt in predictions/ that is not listed. A failing check blocks the deploy. The check reads predictions/HASHES.txt only; the benchmark hashes in bench/HASHES.txt (prompts b790afb3, v1 rules 02f49ee5, v2 rules d1c5885a) are outside it. Gate details: Conformity gate.
Files and rerun
Local check, from conformity/README.md (Python 3 and Node, no network):
python3 .github/actions/conformity/run.py --root . --config conformity/site-tier.json --requirements conformity/requirements.json --out conformity --dry-run